Chengstein’s very unstatistical response to gas and liucifer

Note: Cheng is under the impression that the answer has to be 50%, therefore making Cheng a 33% denier.

Cheng is bored, so chengameepheus has decided to use ninnish examples to exemplify what to do. In my first attempt, i’ll use a Presicion Chengsicion Tree, not to be confused with an exacto tree (snipping would be innappropriate for this example).

 

A bungalow(100) of children evenly distributed between male and female

One family….with 2 children….

if first pick is male…49 males are left and 50 females are left

if first pick is female…49 females and 50 males are left

We take the if male thing, thats 49/99 that the second is a male.  Since we want infinite (insert any number here), we take infinite divided by 2(since it is 50% prob its male) minus 1(for the male we took out), then divide it by infinite divided by 2(since thats the amount of possible females left) + the numerator.

 infinite/2 -1

————–

(infinite/2-1) + (infinite/2)

Thats so close to 50% that Cheng won’t do the smath. Cheng’s precision chengcision tree has declared 50%.

Cheng now will call into question the prob. tree that everyone is making. This thing

P(X = 0) = 0.25
P(X = 1) = 0.50
P(X = 2) = 0.25

(taken from gas’s thing)

The situation we are using is not as simple as it looks.  I will also assign F (female) or M (Male). In a normal plot, its MM, FF, FM, MF. This overlooks the fact that we aren’t just combining FM and FM. This means I will assign a 1 and 2 to the letter combos also.  This is because we don’t know whether the male is the first or second child. The number is to declare whether its the first or second of its kind to be chosen. Here are all the possibilities.

M1, M2

M2, M1

M1, F1

F1, M1

F1, F2

F2, F1

Once we chrisliminate the (f1,f2) as well as the (f2, f1), the results become apparent.  It becomes (M1, M2) + (M2, M1) + (M1,F1) + (F1, M1) divided by (M1,F1) + (F1, M1), also known as 4 divi, oh shintos, i’m dyslexic or something. switch those around, then its also known as 2 divided by 4 = .5 or 50%.  Please attempt a refute job on this, its just a ponderoso coming from chengstein’s thinking muscle.

                                   

6 comments

  1. i almost made it an analogy to sports, but i gave myself a brain changer and went with no example at all, that way i can’t confuse anyone more than i already have. Its at least insane, but hopefully both.

  2. i think one of the problems wit hthis scenario is that the chenglimination is creeping up on the down side, which is causing you to add extra flows. Are you sure you counted both the upside down and right side up cases?

  3. i don’t get your flow malfunction that your trying to get to. Its probably with only having two FM’s. there is no way to have a second male or female chosen if there is one of each. (F2, M1)?, not exactly, because the first female has to be chosen first, so that case would be impossibles trimangle. It does seem weird that mixed doubles only happens a third of the time in the cheng scenario. Use the illustration of the nation if I don’t read you.

  4. Hmm. I would probably go like this. Squeegie’s has the best form and layout. Gas has the best use of ninnish statistics. Cheng has the best use of combined ninnishness and messed up good thoughts. If your own post doesn’t make the most sense to you, something is massively wrong.

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